628,245.32 Reasons Gene Schulter is a Favorite to Replace Rahm

[A couple of readers, including James below, have pointed out that Schulter is limited in how he can use his funds;  the money Feigenholtz raised last quarter has no such restrictions.]

In an ongoing attempt to track the race to replace Rahm Emanuel in Illinois’ Fifth Congressional District, a look into who might have the most money squirreled away. It’s not Sara Feigenholtz, who had $313,000 in her bank as of October 5 and says she raised $300,000 before the end of the year–presumably in addition to what she had on had in October. Nor is it Mike Quigley, who reported $492,000 as of June 30. No, it’s 33-year veteran Chicago alderman Gene Schulter of the 47th Ward. According to his most recent report filed with the Illinois State Board of Elections, Schulter had more than $628,000 as of June 30. Of course, these three and other candidates, and others, have been raising funds over the last few weeks. Feigenholtz has a snazzy web and twitter presence; labor lawyer Tom Geoghegan has quickly become the darling of the “Net Roots” and non-Chicago lefties such as, most recently, Katha Pollit. But Schulter would seem to have a significant head start in the money race, not to mention a veteran campaign machinery. (As Schulter’s entry at Cloutwiki points out, the long-running feud  he eventually won over his former mentor Ed Kelly means he  “is thought to maintain one of the strongest campaign organizations in the city.”

The Beltway Liberal Chattering Class Finds a Candidate to Replace Rahm

The big buzz today in Chicago politics, at least in the national progressive press, wasn’t Sen.-designate Roland Burris’ failure to pass the Senate threshold. Rather, elite chatter has focused on the entry of labor attorney Tom Geoghegan into the race for Illinois’ Fifth Congressional District. Unfortunately for Geoghegan, the endorsements of James Fallows, Rick Hertzberg, Kevin Drum and Joe Trippi don’t equal the support of a single Democratic committeeman. While the blogo- and twitter-spheres were a-buzz about Geoghegan, neither the Sun-Times nor the Tribune mentioned him once.

The creators of the Chicago Elections wiki have set up a page on the Race to Replace Rahm, with a total of 18 candidates; Mike Dumke of the Chicago Reader keeps it to 14. With so many candidates, someone could win the March 3 primary with as little of 20% of the vote, but realistically there are six candidates who could win: Aldermen Pat O’Connor and Gene Schulter, State Reps. John Fritchey and Sara Feigenholtz, Cook County commissioner Mike Quigley, and former TSA staffer (and son of a long time alderman) Justin Oberman.

Mayor Daley may be refraining from making an endorsement, meaning the traditional party bosses may split their support among  Schulter, Fritchey and O’Connor, should he stay in; Feigenholz and Quigley will wrestle for the progressive vote. (To date, Feigenholz has the best web presence, and $300,000 in the bank.) Feigenholz and former Ald. Eisendrath, with 10.8% each,  lead the prediction thread at Eric Zorn’s blog–”Other” is in front with 33%.

One pol who is not a candidate, 49th Ward Alderman Joe Moore was named “Most valuable local official” by the Nation in its listing of 2008’s “Most Valuable Progressives.” (via Angela Caputo) (I can already hear the chortles from Rogers Park bloggers such at Chicago News Bench and The Broken Heart of Rogers Park.)

Illinois Senate Update: Gutierrez Out

Luis Gutierrez, stating the obvious, says he is no longer a candiate for the open Senate seat. If you’re keeping track of Chicago’s Congressional delegation, Schakowsky and Davis are still  the game, while Luis and Jackson are out. (Robert Herguth also reports that Gutierrez and Illinois Hispanic Chamber of Commerce CEO Omar Duque were among “a group of prominent Chicago-area Latinos” who gathered last Friday night at an Old Town restaurant to raise funds for Blagojevich. “A Gutierrez aide says the congressman attended the fundraiser only to speak to the governor about the Republic Windows & Doors sit-in and did not contribute money.)

Prairie State Politics Snapshot

After a holiday respite, local politics are heating up.

More than two weeks after Obama’s resignation, Illinois still has only one Senator. Proving that “post-racial” does not apply in Chicago, a coalition of Black ministers and political and civic leaders called demanded that Gov. Blagojevich replace Obama with an African American. Rep. Bobby Rush (the only man to have bested Obama in an election) said not doing so would be “a national disgrace.”

As Joseph Ryan points out, Blagojevich is weighing how his selection could impact his re-election prospects. (Illinois may be the only state in the union where a governor with a 13% approval rating is considering his re-election prospects.) State Treasurer, and long-time Friend of Barack Alexi Giannoulias is holding press conferences and fundraisers, sounding very much like a candidate for governor. (He’ll be 33 when the next governor takes office.) It could be a heavy-weight battle royale in 2010, with Bill Daley and Attorney General Lisa Madigan all but declared. Throw in Comptroller Dan Hynes, Lt. Gov. Pat Quinn and State Sen. James Meeks, and Blagojevich may not be crazy to think he could win a primary with a sliver of a fragmented vote.

18 Potential Candidates, and Counting, in Illinois’ 5th District

We don’t often witness an open Congressional seat in Chicago (was the last one the 4th District in 1992, won by Luis Gutierrez?), so it’s not surprising that nearly 20 names are being bandied about as potential candidates. (I mentioned the first 8 on Sunday.) Channel 2’s Mike Flannery threw out some additional names last night, among them state Rep. Sara Feigenholtz; 39th Ward Ald. Margaret Laurino; former Assistant U.S. Attorney Michelle Smith, former State Rep. Nancy Kaszak, Emanuel’s former chief of staff John Borovicka and former 43d Ward Ald. Edwin Eisendrath. Roll Call adds Ald. (Ann Sather owner and Laura Washington’s and Turth2Tell’s favored candidate) Tom Tunney,  J.B. Pritzker (unlike sister Penny he supported Hillary), businessman Cary Capparelli, and former Clinton White House aide and Obama for America staffer Peter Dagher to the list.

If, Deb Mell withdraws, as David Ormsbay at Two Cents Less suggests she might, then Borovicka, with his fundraising ability and connections to Emanuel, becomes my frontrunner.

Imagine if Blagojevich taps Jan Schakowsky for the Senate– the  resulting opening in the 9th District could leave use with upwards of 30 people running around the Northside looking for a ticket to DC.

Who Will Pat Quinn Select to Succeed Obama?

Rod Blagojevich could remain the governor through the end of this year, though yesterday’s Rezko case news makes that slightly less likely.  In any case, Ramsin Canon, Eric Zorn and Larry Handlin have started to wonder who Governor Blagojevich, or Lieutenant Governor Pat Quinn, might appoint to replace a President-elect Obama. My neighbors Carol Ronen and Alexi Giannoulias receive several mentions; Attorney General Lisa Madigan may be the best candidate, but her eyes are on the governorship. If Obama gets a say, and is serious about immigration reform, will Luis Gutierrez have a chance to pass the DREAM Act in the Senate? I like Pat Quinn to select himself, should he get the chance.

[Updated post-Blago's indictment: Quinn won't select himself; more recent posts on IL political jockeying.]