Obama eyes Lisa Madigan

Item: Obama meets with Lisa Madigan re the Senate seat.

Response:

1. So much for the notion that Obama (and Jarrett and Emanuel, who were also reported to be in on the meeting) would stay above the fray of Prairie State politics.
2. Apparently Barack  isn’t as down with his basketball buddy as he was back in ‘06 when he cut that TV ad for Alexi. Rahm & crew can’t be happy with Giannoulias‘ Bright Star problems– and are likely privvy to the rumors I hear that more ugly headlines are likely.  Could the White House be worried that Alexi is “Blagojevich all over again,” as someone speculated recently?
3. Lisa running for Senate would brighten the futures of her father and the governor.
4. Which will come first: Lisa’s decision, a state budget, or Aramis Ramirez’s return to Wrigley?

Meanwhile:

• The incumbent junior Senator, Roland Buris, just learned that the Pentagon runs its own research labs.
• The city is potentially on the hook for another $500 million in Olympics funding.
• In the dog-bites-man department, Ron Huberman is looking to bring quantitative analysis to CPS.
• Richard Lindberg’s look at Big Mike McDonald looks to provide insight on our own times, alas.

628,245.32 Reasons Gene Schulter is a Favorite to Replace Rahm

[A couple of readers, including James below, have pointed out that Schulter is limited in how he can use his funds;  the money Feigenholtz raised last quarter has no such restrictions.]

In an ongoing attempt to track the race to replace Rahm Emanuel in Illinois’ Fifth Congressional District, a look into who might have the most money squirreled away. It’s not Sara Feigenholtz, who had $313,000 in her bank as of October 5 and says she raised $300,000 before the end of the year–presumably in addition to what she had on had in October. Nor is it Mike Quigley, who reported $492,000 as of June 30. No, it’s 33-year veteran Chicago alderman Gene Schulter of the 47th Ward. According to his most recent report filed with the Illinois State Board of Elections, Schulter had more than $628,000 as of June 30. Of course, these three and other candidates, and others, have been raising funds over the last few weeks. Feigenholtz has a snazzy web and twitter presence; labor lawyer Tom Geoghegan has quickly become the darling of the “Net Roots” and non-Chicago lefties such as, most recently, Katha Pollit. But Schulter would seem to have a significant head start in the money race, not to mention a veteran campaign machinery. (As Schulter’s entry at Cloutwiki points out, the long-running feud  he eventually won over his former mentor Ed Kelly means he  “is thought to maintain one of the strongest campaign organizations in the city.”

Prairie State Politics Snapshot

After a holiday respite, local politics are heating up.

More than two weeks after Obama’s resignation, Illinois still has only one Senator. Proving that “post-racial” does not apply in Chicago, a coalition of Black ministers and political and civic leaders called demanded that Gov. Blagojevich replace Obama with an African American. Rep. Bobby Rush (the only man to have bested Obama in an election) said not doing so would be “a national disgrace.”

As Joseph Ryan points out, Blagojevich is weighing how his selection could impact his re-election prospects. (Illinois may be the only state in the union where a governor with a 13% approval rating is considering his re-election prospects.) State Treasurer, and long-time Friend of Barack Alexi Giannoulias is holding press conferences and fundraisers, sounding very much like a candidate for governor. (He’ll be 33 when the next governor takes office.) It could be a heavy-weight battle royale in 2010, with Bill Daley and Attorney General Lisa Madigan all but declared. Throw in Comptroller Dan Hynes, Lt. Gov. Pat Quinn and State Sen. James Meeks, and Blagojevich may not be crazy to think he could win a primary with a sliver of a fragmented vote.

The Race to Replace Rahmbo “Dissolving” into an Election

An update on the jockeying in Illinois’ 5th Congressional District: Mike Quigley, despite chatter that he might sit out, is in, as is Sara Feigenholtz. Names added to the lists develolped earlier include Frank Avila and Jay Paul Deranty; Tom Tunney and Deb Mell are likely out. Ald. Patrick O’Connor (via Steve Rhodes) thinks there are too many damn candidates, and has a way to fix things:

“We, as political leaders in this congressional district, would be pretty poor leaders if we allow it to dissolve into something like that…This is an opportunity for all of us to be together, work together and come up with a candidate we can all support and, if that happens, it’ll be a great opportunity,” he said.

(Hunter Clauss reminds us of reported overlaps between Ald. O’Connor’s votes and his wife’s real estate work; expect more digging into such reports should he run.)

18 Potential Candidates, and Counting, in Illinois’ 5th District

We don’t often witness an open Congressional seat in Chicago (was the last one the 4th District in 1992, won by Luis Gutierrez?), so it’s not surprising that nearly 20 names are being bandied about as potential candidates. (I mentioned the first 8 on Sunday.) Channel 2’s Mike Flannery threw out some additional names last night, among them state Rep. Sara Feigenholtz; 39th Ward Ald. Margaret Laurino; former Assistant U.S. Attorney Michelle Smith, former State Rep. Nancy Kaszak, Emanuel’s former chief of staff John Borovicka and former 43d Ward Ald. Edwin Eisendrath. Roll Call adds Ald. (Ann Sather owner and Laura Washington’s and Turth2Tell’s favored candidate) Tom Tunney,  J.B. Pritzker (unlike sister Penny he supported Hillary), businessman Cary Capparelli, and former Clinton White House aide and Obama for America staffer Peter Dagher to the list.

If, Deb Mell withdraws, as David Ormsbay at Two Cents Less suggests she might, then Borovicka, with his fundraising ability and connections to Emanuel, becomes my frontrunner.

Imagine if Blagojevich taps Jan Schakowsky for the Senate– the  resulting opening in the 9th District could leave use with upwards of 30 people running around the Northside looking for a ticket to DC.

Will Obama’s Windy City Vacuum be Filled by Nepotism?

As if this week hasn’t been exciting enough, political junkies here in Chicago have the added bonus of watching the domino effect of Obama’s victory. I took a first scan of potential Obama replacements in February, and still like Luis Gutierrez. Political secession in Illinois is usually kept in the family, and given the fact that Malia is a bit young, and Michelle already has a good gig awaiting her, we’re all a bit stumped about what to do here. The fact that Illinois is a defact one-party state makes the selection that much more interesting. Reps. Jesse Jackson, Jr., Gutierrez, Danny Davis and Jan Schakowsky, and state officials Atty. Gen.  Lisa Madigan, Comptroller Dan Hynes, Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, Veterans Affaris director Tammy Duckworth, Secretary of State Jesse White and outgoing Senate majority leader (and Obama mentor) Emil Jones, and longtime Obama friend and woman about town Valerie Jarrett are the names bandied about most often. WLS TV in Chicago is reporting today that Jarrett is Obama’s candidate; others have told me that they expect her to be an important White House advisor. (In that same report, Bill Daley comes closer to announcing his candidacy for governor.) Davis, White, and the ethics-challenged Jones would all be emeritus appointments– of that group, White would seem the likeliest candidate to serve the final two years of Obama’s term quietly. Of the other group, I’m keeping an eye on Duckworth. (The Huffington Post is tracking the chatter.)

The other hot topic among Windy City political gossips concerns a replacement for Rahm Emanuel as representative of Illinois’ Fifth Congressional District. The Tribune ran down its list of candidates on Friday: “Cook County Board Commissioners Mike Quigley and Forrest Claypool; Alds. Thomas Allen (38th), Gene Schulter (47th), Patrick O’Connor (40th) and Manny Flores (1st); state Reps. John Fritchey and Deborah Mell, the governor’s sister-in-law and daughter of the 33rd Ward alderman.”  We rarely have an open election in these parts, and the junkie in me would love a wide open race. Mell is the frontrunner, if for no other than reason that that her anointment by the powers that be (also known as Democratic Party Committeemen) would fit in with Illinois Democratic Party dynastic tradition– her father Richard has been an Alderman and Committeeman since Walter Payton was a rookie. (Steve Rhodes sums up Mell’s “puppetmaster” history, leaving out his role in persuading Gene Sawyer to replace Harold Washington in 1987.) I live about a dozen blocks northeast of the Fifth’s boundaries, as an outsider I’d be happy to see Quigley or Claypool in Congress. The most intriguing candidate, however, is Manny Flores, of whom I’ve been hearing good things since I returned to Chicago four years ago. In a city where City Council members are known more for ethical lapses, comedic one-liners, and voting in lockstep with the Mayor , Flores is an articulate exception, respected for his economic development and public transit work.

Handicapping a post-Daley 2011 Chicago Mayoral Race

As I mentioned on Twitter last week (and on this blog last year), I suffer from mayoral race envy, for I live in a town that hasn’t seen a competitive contest since Richard Daley was elected 19 years ago. This jealousy was only heightened by listening to the Guardian’s special Politics Weekly podcast on Boris Johnson’s electoral triumph. Rather than leave Chicago, I’ve begun to imagine what a real 2011 mayoral election might look like.

Obviously, should Mayor Daley decide to (or, pending ongoing corruption investigations, not be able to) run for re-election, he will be the favorite to be re-elected. Whether or not that would be the best thing for the city, it is not a particularly exciting prospect for a political junkie daydreaming about 2011. So let’s ignore him.

After Daley, any list of 2011 candidates begins with two Congressmen who came close to challenging Daley last year, Jesse Jackson Jr. and Luis Gutierrez. As Walter Jacobson pointed out on Chicago Public Radio,, and as was pointed out here, one of them could end up being our next Senator– of the two, I’d bet on Gutierrez. City Clerk Miguel Del Valle has been turning up at several benefit dinners in the Loop this spring, and I trust that it’s not due to a love for rubber chicken and weak coffee. I’d place Cook County Commissioner Forrest Claypool into a non-Daley second tier with Del Valle. Two wild cards who may be better off waiting for 2015, are SEIU favorite Ald. Sandi Jackson (Jesse’s spouse) and States Attorney nominee Anita Alvarez. For a wild, wild card, let’s toss U.S. Attorney Patrick Fitzgerald’s name into the ring.

February 2011 seems like a long ways away, but it will be here before you know it.

Making Change

[from guest blogger JDL]

Marshall Ganz, has written a nice piece on why Obama’s campaign is about more than the rhetoric of change and atonement. Ganz believes that Obama’s campaign marks one of the rare moments in history when the cultural and political landscapes are deeply transformed.

“Deep change in the values that shape our politics, policy, and view of government hasn’t happened very often — in fact, only five or six times. When it has happened, it has been the work of popular movements that stir broad enough public engagement to mobilize a governing coalition with the power to achieve real change.”

Various commentators have positioned the Obama campaign as a movement that’s being driven by progressives and historically disenfranchised voters. The emerging coalition of young people, African Americans, and progressives of all colors (yes even Latinos) and genders is rocking the Clintonian political machine. We’re beginning to see that white working class voters are also throwing their support behind Obama. Obama’s election would bring a new governing coalition to power. Many of us are hopeful enough to think that this new coalition will yield economically and socially just results.