Breaking Down the 5th

Political consultant Mike Fourcher (the man behind Chicago Cloutwiki) shares the slides he presented this week to the Northside of Democracy for America chapter; key takeaways from his preview of the Febrary 3 primary election

• The majority of votes in the District can be found in the city.
• Shrinking middle class: between the 2000 Census and 2007, the residents of the District became both more educated (from 23% college educated to 36%) and poorer (from 8.6% to 10.6%)
• Other demographic oddities: the 5th became slightly less foreign born (30.8/28.6), while also becoming a bit more Latino (25% to 27.7%).
• Alums of the Bill Foster victory are managing the campaigns of Sara Feigenholtz (Mike Redina, Foster’s manager), Mike Qugley (Tom Bowen) and John Fritchey  (Josh Levin).
• Illinois is liable to lose one district after 2010 redistricting. (And might this seat, with a relatively new Congressman, be the most likely to end up on the chopping block?)

628,245.32 Reasons Gene Schulter is a Favorite to Replace Rahm

[A couple of readers, including James below, have pointed out that Schulter is limited in how he can use his funds;  the money Feigenholtz raised last quarter has no such restrictions.]

In an ongoing attempt to track the race to replace Rahm Emanuel in Illinois’ Fifth Congressional District, a look into who might have the most money squirreled away. It’s not Sara Feigenholtz, who had $313,000 in her bank as of October 5 and says she raised $300,000 before the end of the year–presumably in addition to what she had on had in October. Nor is it Mike Quigley, who reported $492,000 as of June 30. No, it’s 33-year veteran Chicago alderman Gene Schulter of the 47th Ward. According to his most recent report filed with the Illinois State Board of Elections, Schulter had more than $628,000 as of June 30. Of course, these three and other candidates, and others, have been raising funds over the last few weeks. Feigenholtz has a snazzy web and twitter presence; labor lawyer Tom Geoghegan has quickly become the darling of the “Net Roots” and non-Chicago lefties such as, most recently, Katha Pollit. But Schulter would seem to have a significant head start in the money race, not to mention a veteran campaign machinery. (As Schulter’s entry at Cloutwiki points out, the long-running feud  he eventually won over his former mentor Ed Kelly means he  “is thought to maintain one of the strongest campaign organizations in the city.”

The Beltway Liberal Chattering Class Finds a Candidate to Replace Rahm

The big buzz today in Chicago politics, at least in the national progressive press, wasn’t Sen.-designate Roland Burris’ failure to pass the Senate threshold. Rather, elite chatter has focused on the entry of labor attorney Tom Geoghegan into the race for Illinois’ Fifth Congressional District. Unfortunately for Geoghegan, the endorsements of James Fallows, Rick Hertzberg, Kevin Drum and Joe Trippi don’t equal the support of a single Democratic committeeman. While the blogo- and twitter-spheres were a-buzz about Geoghegan, neither the Sun-Times nor the Tribune mentioned him once.

The creators of the Chicago Elections wiki have set up a page on the Race to Replace Rahm, with a total of 18 candidates; Mike Dumke of the Chicago Reader keeps it to 14. With so many candidates, someone could win the March 3 primary with as little of 20% of the vote, but realistically there are six candidates who could win: Aldermen Pat O’Connor and Gene Schulter, State Reps. John Fritchey and Sara Feigenholtz, Cook County commissioner Mike Quigley, and former TSA staffer (and son of a long time alderman) Justin Oberman.

Mayor Daley may be refraining from making an endorsement, meaning the traditional party bosses may split their support among  Schulter, Fritchey and O’Connor, should he stay in; Feigenholz and Quigley will wrestle for the progressive vote. (To date, Feigenholz has the best web presence, and $300,000 in the bank.) Feigenholz and former Ald. Eisendrath, with 10.8% each,  lead the prediction thread at Eric Zorn’s blog–”Other” is in front with 33%.

One pol who is not a candidate, 49th Ward Alderman Joe Moore was named “Most valuable local official” by the Nation in its listing of 2008’s “Most Valuable Progressives.” (via Angela Caputo) (I can already hear the chortles from Rogers Park bloggers such at Chicago News Bench and The Broken Heart of Rogers Park.)

(Jeffrey) Goldberg Bait in the Race to Replace Rahm

“Aviation security expert” and former Obama advisor  Justin Oberman is the latest entrant in the sweepstakes to replace Rahm Emanuel as representative of Illinois’s 5th Congressional District. (In the finest Chicago political tradition, Oberman is the son of former longtime City Council member Marty Oberman.) The bulk of Oberman’s bio centers on his time with the Transportation Security Administration. Among the areas he takes pride in is “Secure Flight, a new passenger pre-screening system for domestic aviation in the United States.” The prospect of Jefffrey Goldberg covering a Rep. Oberman’s TSA-advocacy is almost enough for me to pull for him.

The Race to Replace Rahmbo “Dissolving” into an Election

An update on the jockeying in Illinois’ 5th Congressional District: Mike Quigley, despite chatter that he might sit out, is in, as is Sara Feigenholtz. Names added to the lists develolped earlier include Frank Avila and Jay Paul Deranty; Tom Tunney and Deb Mell are likely out. Ald. Patrick O’Connor (via Steve Rhodes) thinks there are too many damn candidates, and has a way to fix things:

“We, as political leaders in this congressional district, would be pretty poor leaders if we allow it to dissolve into something like that…This is an opportunity for all of us to be together, work together and come up with a candidate we can all support and, if that happens, it’ll be a great opportunity,” he said.

(Hunter Clauss reminds us of reported overlaps between Ald. O’Connor’s votes and his wife’s real estate work; expect more digging into such reports should he run.)

18 Potential Candidates, and Counting, in Illinois’ 5th District

We don’t often witness an open Congressional seat in Chicago (was the last one the 4th District in 1992, won by Luis Gutierrez?), so it’s not surprising that nearly 20 names are being bandied about as potential candidates. (I mentioned the first 8 on Sunday.) Channel 2’s Mike Flannery threw out some additional names last night, among them state Rep. Sara Feigenholtz; 39th Ward Ald. Margaret Laurino; former Assistant U.S. Attorney Michelle Smith, former State Rep. Nancy Kaszak, Emanuel’s former chief of staff John Borovicka and former 43d Ward Ald. Edwin Eisendrath. Roll Call adds Ald. (Ann Sather owner and Laura Washington’s and Turth2Tell’s favored candidate) Tom Tunney,  J.B. Pritzker (unlike sister Penny he supported Hillary), businessman Cary Capparelli, and former Clinton White House aide and Obama for America staffer Peter Dagher to the list.

If, Deb Mell withdraws, as David Ormsbay at Two Cents Less suggests she might, then Borovicka, with his fundraising ability and connections to Emanuel, becomes my frontrunner.

Imagine if Blagojevich taps Jan Schakowsky for the Senate– the  resulting opening in the 9th District could leave use with upwards of 30 people running around the Northside looking for a ticket to DC.