Gubernatorial, and Mayoral, Polls on the Loose

Polling a municipal race five months out is pretty pointless. That didn’t stop the Sun Times from taking a crack at it this weekend. The headline emphasized that the Mayor could be forced into his first run-off– not so notable when you consider the run-off was only added eight years ago. Look beyond the hype and there is little for the pink-faced mafia to worry about at this early date:

The poll foreshadows a tough road ahead for whichever challenger would survive the February election and get another shot at Daley in April…In one-on-one matchups, the mayor beats Jackson, 59 percent to 23 percent, according to the poll. He trounces Gutierrez, 61 percent to 19 percent.

Unfortunately, the Sun Times does not include the survey’s raw data, though they do say that “the random sample of 400 city voters has an error margin of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points.”

The same survey weighed the governor’s race:

Blagojevich was leading Topinka 56 percent to 26 percent. Green Party candidate Rich Whitney had 3 percent, and 15 percent were undecided.

The Trib, meanwhile, released its gubernatorial poll, showing Blagojevich far in front. I guess the Guv’s creative uses of internship programs aren’t hurting him, yet. The poll

portends a potentially passionless, low-turnout election for governor… The poll, conducted Thursday through Sunday, found Blagojevich with the support of 45 percent of the 600 likely voters surveyed, compared with 33 percent for Topinka and 6 percent for Green Party contender Rich Whitney. Another 15 percent were undecided, and 1 percent said they would vote for another unidentified candidate. The survey has an error margin of 4 percentage points.

So, are numbers for the Cook Country Board President’s race out next?

UPDATE: Sure enough, they were:

Todd Stroger was leading Republican Cook County Commissioner Tony Peraica, 52 percent to 19 percent, with nearly a quarter of voters undecided…

Peraica’s officials said the results are out of whack with their own polling, which showed Peraica leading Stroger 42 percent to 38 percent, another GOP poll that shows the race a statistical dead heat and what they have heard about Stroger’s own internal polling.

“The Sun-Times should get a refund on this poll,” said Peraica spokesman Dan Proft. “There is no way on this mortal coil that those numbers are correct.

“The other thing, the idea that a majority of Cook County voters are basically satisfied with the direction of Cook County? No way that is possible. No one who has not been living under a rock can be happy with the direction of the county.”

Yet again, the Sun Times failed to provide the poll’s raw data– but neither did the Peraica campaign point to the details of its data. (Chicago Public Radio ran a story this morning questionning the Sun Times poll. I can’t find it on their site— maybe it’s here at the morning news summary.)


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