Can No One at the Sun Times Read a Poll?

On Tuesday, the Sun-Times’ SCOTT FORNEK AND STEVE PATTERSON reported on a poll the Tarrance Group did on the race for Cook County President on behalf of Republican candidate Tony Peraica. (A Republican hasn’t won County wide since at least the Bulls last championship, but this year,a series of Democratic Party shenanigans has led many to consider defecting to the GOP.) From the article:

Republican Tony Peraica released an internal campaign poll Monday that shows him leading Democrat Todd Stroger by eight percentage points in the race for Cook County Board president. The GOP Cook County commissioner was beating the Democratic alderman from the 8th Ward, 48 percent to 40 percent, with 12 percent of voters undecided….Peraica’s latest poll was conducted Oct. 2-5 by the Tarrance Group of Alexandria, Va. It’s based on a random sample of 400 likely voters and has an error margin of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points, according to a memo written by the pollster.

It’s late, but let’s do the math: a margin of error of 4.9 percent, when subtracted from Peraica’s 48% and added to Stroger’s 40% means the poll shows that the race is a statistical tie.

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